State Youth Turnout Gap Explorer

Explore the gap between overall and 18-29 turnout by state and year, with institutional and policy context. Powered by the Sprint 2 integrated state-year panel (CPS calibrated to Census GVF standard errors, with McDonald VEP benchmarks, Hur-Achen adjustment, NCSL policies, and redistricting method).

Turnout gap — overall vs 18-29 — by state

Presidential margin vs youth turnout

Competitiveness (smaller presidential margin) correlates with youth turnout in the literature. Below: one point per state for the selected year, colored by redistricting method.

Policy score vs turnout gap

States with more facilitative policies (AVR, SDR, pre-reg, mail, etc.) should show smaller gaps. One point per state, selected year.

About this data

Source: Sprint 2 integrated state-year panel (src/data/state_year_panel.parquet).

Calibration: CPS turnout is self-reported; overall CPS rates run a median ~2.6 pt higher than McDonald VEP voter-file-validated turnout. Intra-state cohort comparisons are more reliable than absolute levels. The turnout_pct_adj column provides Hur-Achen-adjusted rates that match VEP by state.

Institutional variables: Redistricting method from NCSL Congressional Redistricting Commissions page. Policy score sums NCSL-sourced flags for AVR, SDR, OVR, pre-registration, no-excuse absentee, and universal VBM.

Caveat (2020): Presidential margin data unavailable for 2020 due to Harvard Dataverse guestbook. Backfill from FEC is a Week 3 task.