The Second Mile
The participation-equity movement built voter registration. It hasn't built the vote-completion infrastructure for the second mile.
Based on 13 U.S. federal elections (2000-2024) and 1.16 million Census records. Full methodology and reproducible code: voting.predictivepace.com/methodology
1 in 3
Registered Black men aged 21-32 don't cast a ballot, every federal cycle.
Nearly 1 in 2
Registered Hispanic men aged 21-32 don't cast a ballot, every federal cycle.
Six facts that shape the story
1
About 36 of every 100 Black men aged 21 to 32 who are registered to vote don't cast a ballot in any given federal election. For Hispanic men in the same age range, the number is closer to 46. The ballots aren't being cast because nothing exists to help these voters get them cast.
2
When the Census asks young registered voters why they didn't vote, half cite logistics — too busy, out of town, forgot, transportation, work hours. Only a quarter cite engagement (not interested, vote wouldn't matter). The "apathetic young people" story is not what young people themselves say.
3
Twenty years of organizing got young Black and Hispanic voters onto the rolls at credible levels. The next dollar buys more new voters by helping the already-registered cast a ballot than by registering still more people.
4
Hispanic men aged 18 to 32 vote at the lowest rate of any group in our dataset, roughly 22% to 34% depending on age. Closing the gap to the rate of Black men in the same age range would add about 1.5 million voters every federal election.
5
Only 44 of every 100 Black men aged 18 to 20 are registered. But of those who are registered, 65 of every 100 actually vote. The 18-20 problem isn't motivation; it's never getting onto the rolls. Federal law lets 47 states register voters automatically at the DMV; fewer than 10 do it well.
6
The nonprofits doing this work run on $50,000 to $200,000 a year and spreadsheets. Voto Latino, Mi Familia Vota, NAACP, Black Voters Matter, When We All Vote. They have the community trust political campaigns can't buy. They don't have the tools to target precisely or to prove what worked.
What we're building
Ages 18-20
First ID, First Vote
When a young person picks up their first state ID at the DMV, the same visit can register them to vote — opt-in, 60 seconds. Federal law already permits this in 47 states. The barrier is how states implement it, not the law. Custom state engagement: $25,000 to $75,000.
Ages 21-32 · centerpiece
Ballot Concierge
A mobile-first app for voters. Enter your address — get your registration status, your ballot pulled for you, deadline reminders, your nearest drop-off, and confirmation when your ballot is counted. Eight languages cover more than 95% of the populations we're targeting. Distributed through QR codes in places people already gather. Per-state rollout: $50,000 to $200,000.
Movement infrastructure
Civic Org OS
A shared platform every nonprofit in this space needs and none of them has. Helps each organization figure out which voters to focus on, which messengers will reach them, what worked last cycle, and what to tell funders. Free forever for nonpartisan nonprofits. Foundation-funded as movement infrastructure.
What you can do
If you're a state Secretary of State
Run a First ID, First Vote pilot in your state before the next federal election. State DMVs are the highest-leverage moment to register 18-year-olds, and federal law already allows it. Custom engagement runs $25,000 to $75,000. Secretaries whose offices fit first: Benson (MI), Fontes (AZ), Toulouse Oliver (NM), Weber (CA), Hobbs (WA), Aguilar (NV), Raffensperger (GA), LaRose (OH).
If you're a foundation program officer
A single $1 million to $3 million infrastructure grant would give every nonprofit working on voter participation the targeting and measurement tools they currently lack. Per-state Ballot Concierge deployments run $50,000 to $200,000 each. Knight, Democracy Fund, Skoll, Open Society, and Carnegie are the foundations whose civic-engagement portfolios fit.
If you're a movement-org leader
Co-build Ballot Concierge in your service area. Use Civic Org OS free of charge as an early partner organization. Co-brand the public report so credibility runs both directions. Named partners we'd be honored to build with: Voto Latino, NAACP, Black Voters Matter, Mi Familia Vota, Color Of Change, When We All Vote, A. Philip Randolph Institute, State Voices Action.
If you're a congressional staffer
The peer-reviewed evidence on universal vote-by-mail and ballot-tracking + multi-language ballot help points to +2 to +5 pp turnout effects at the lowest amortized per-marginal-voter cost in the intervention catalog (Gerber & Green 2019; Brennan Center). A federal policy package combining a universal-mail-voting floor with a ballot-tracking and multi-language ballot-help requirement is the lever the evidence supports. Offices with documented voting-access policy interest include Klobuchar, Padilla, Frost, Castro, Cohen, Aguilar, and Clarke; we are happy to brief on the cell-level evidence base.